It’s easy being pessimistic these days. There’s much to worry about including multiple wars, a looming fiscal crisis, the disastrous state of education and, of course, the dreaded rematch of Biden and Trump. Surely you could add your own concerns to the list. We react to bad news, it drives ratings and therefore it dominates the headlines - no matter where you get them. “If it bleeds, it leads” has never been more true.
We seem to be living in the most dangerous of times with the most important election of our lives on the horizon. But, then again, I can’t remember an election where that wasn’t the case. The truth is big problems will never go away, and for most of history we have steadily marched forward with the good outweighing the bad. In the middle of the action any gains feel small as progress is messy and takes time to work out whereas problems loom large and feel unsolvable.
I won’t lie, I am generally pessimistic. In my view, the growing chaos of the world is a reflection of deeper long term issues coming to a head with no easy fixes. But, there are things to feel good about. And some are big enough that they may just get us through to the other side.
So here’s a dose of good news to consider - some counter-intuitive, some controversial. Are you even open to good news? Let’s see:
Abortion is the new gay marriage. There is massive consensus in America that abortion under 12 to 15 weeks of pregnancy should be legal. With few exceptions (most notably in Texas), politicians fighting this consensus are losing - and losing big. While the fight feels more urgent than ever to both sides, the trend is clear. In due time, reasonable, legal abortion will be the law. Across the country - even Texas. No more Supreme Court debates over one issue. No more Congressional hearings. No more rallies. An issue that tore the country apart every four years (and with each Supreme Court nomination) will soon be past us. At least it will be out of politics, removing some heat from our intense partisanship. It’s over - we just don’t quite feel it yet as the GOP foolishly stumbles its way to the inevitable compromise and the Democrats gleefully capitalize on their error. Skeptical? Well when you’ve lost Anne Coulter….
Identity politics has peaked. Disparate outcomes amongst certain minorities, especially Black Americans, are persistent and troubling. The proposed solutions of the last decade have been built on Ibram Kendi’s dictum: “The only remedy to past discrimination is present discrimination.” But, stereotyping groups and pitting them against each other is a loser. And it results in nutty solutions. Segregated dorms and graduations. Canceling calculus. Defunding the police. Using terms like “whiteness” and “blackness.” The problem still needs urgent attention, but the space to find real solutions is opening up again. Perhaps we can start finding policy ideas that bring us together, not rip us apart.
Climate realism on the rise. “No country that is habitable will become uninhabitable.” Who said it? Bill Gates. Recently. Not exactly a climate denier. And his comments echo the actual science in the UN’s IPCC. Yes, climate change is a serious issue. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Warming is real. Yes, we just had one of the warmest summers on “record” (i.e. over the last 150 years since records started - not in broad history). But, it is not existential and no one but the most extreme activists (and the press that echoes them) has said as much. From the newest head of the IPCC: “The world won’t end if it gets more than 1.5 °C warmer. However, it will be a more dangerous world. Countries will struggle with many problems, there will be social tensions. And yet, this is not an existential threat to humanity.” Hannah Ritchie, Chief Scientist of Our World in Data, is the latest convert to realism authoring a book titled Not the End of the World. We must make progress moving past carbon based energy, but also deal with the real risks and costs of proposed solutions. So far, it is pretty much a muddled mess with big dollars being made by entrenched interests (China! Wall St!). My hunch is this one will not land with most, but just consider if climate is a serious problem to mitigate, not the end of the world. How would it change your outlook? A deeper dive on this issue is a priority for a 2024 post. In the meantime, this video shows a frustrated Bill Gates challenging the doomsday narrative with a general sense of optimism (and awareness of tradeoffs) in tackling climate:
Nuclear renaissance. Whatever your views on climate, using less energy is not an option. It is THE determinant to material prosperity and the world needs more of it - especially the developing world. We gave up on nuclear for (mostly) bad reasons. It is the densest and cleanest energy source in the world (yes, even cleaner than solar and wind which require a ton of energy to get into production relative to output). It is safe. And it is coming back. It won’t be a straight line to progress, but the world is committing with big projects moving now in China, India, Egypt, UK, South Korea and many more. COP28 saw a massive new commitment to nuclear. One big gap: the US. We need to lead here or we will soon be reopening coal plants like Germany has done in the wake of their nuclear shutdowns. It will take a regulatory rethink, but that is likely as momentum grows.
Independents rule. The 2024 election looks like it will be the rematch no one wants. But, regardless of the outcome and what each side wants you to believe, we will survive. While a stale repeat of old grievances dominate this cycle, a major political realignment is coming. Party affiliation is at an all time low. The people want something new. Our parties are not naturally aligned to deal with the issues of today. And views are shifting. Candidates on the right are rallying against free trade and pushing industrial policy. Candidates on the left can be found supporting limits to privacy for security and demanding supply side deregulation. It is a topsy-turvy world. Old affiliations will surely wear thin and new platforms will emerge. It’s a good time to be independent and open minded to various views and new ideas. Let’s just hope higher integrity leaders start carrying the flag.
Hard to say these positives counter the threats we face, but we have to find some hope as we hit the New Year. And remember, muddling through is how we have always done it. Problems are the stuff of life.
Appreciate your views on moderation, partisanship, optimism, small movements, etc.
We would hold out, however, for solutions that create side-benefits rather than require trade-offs. As in regenerative agriculture where the win-win-win comes from nature's support; and in regenerative medicine where reversing one disease creates a well body that can also heal another.
About energy. Given that wealthy countries have high rates of both energy use and chronic disease, and that chronic disease comes largely from the way we live (and consume energy), is it necessarily true that "... using less energy is not an option"? As Americans lean further into reversing chronic disease with lifestyle medicine, what might happen, eventually, to our energy consumption patterns? What will happen to our sprawling medical complexes, to energy-thirsty food production and transport, to consumers rejecting goods that make us sick in favor of those that make us well?
Applying regenerative methods in agriculture and medicine are great reasons to be optimistic, and one of those reasons is that a significant shift in lifestyle patterns could eventually lower energy use.