A few years ago, I wrote a post about changing my mind. It’s hard to admit being wrong, but critical to any hope of being intellectually honest.
One of the worst legacies of Trump is his success in never admitting fault or error. Sadly, many have embraced the approach. Just in the last few weeks, we got Anthony Fauci’s denial of ever pushing for lockdowns as well as David Frum (of “axis of evil” fame) writing a lengthy non-apology apology for the Iraq war. While Trump seems to continue to get away with it, I think the public is growing tired of the deceit and false posturing by public figures and the media.
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In the hope for a new era of admitting (and learning from) error, here are a few things I recently got wrong:
European energy crisis. Coming into the winter, I was confident Europe was facing a devastating energy crunch. I was expecting a massive recession and even civil unrest given skyrocketing heating costs. It didn’t happen. I still think it could in the future, but leaders saw the risk and adjusted. How? Well, they kept importing a lot of Russian gas (some via India). They integrated LNG terminals rapidly so they could import US gas. Their renewable base performed very well. Most surprisingly, they turned their coal plants back on. And, oh yeah, the winter was mild. Bullet dodged. But, trouble lurks, especially with the increasing pace of nuclear power plant shutdowns - a decision I will never understand.
Via Bloomberg.
Trump’s done. Maybe it was just wishful thinking, but I truly could not foresee a political future for Trump. Jan 6th, poor election results tied to his candidates, indictments and just continued drama around him made the idea of a return far fetched. Well, the betting markets now have him over 50% chance to win the nomination. I still think a lot can change, but he is far from dead. And, his top challenger, Ron DeSantis, has stumbled badly by trying to out-Trump Trump on cultural issues instead of reinforcing his independent appeal in the day-to-day governing of Florida. I still hold that Trump cannot win a general election. How could anyone at this stage change their view (pro or con) on Trump?
The rapid decline of the dollar. While a recent topic across a lot of media, the dollar still reigns supreme despite my view of its imminent decline. A change is coming, but it will take a long time. And, in the meantime, the dollar could have massive bursts of strength. It’s still the best house in a bad neighborhood and the world has indebted itself in dollars which could drive short term demand as transitions happen (the so-called dollar milkshake theory). I still think currency wars will be one of the big stories of the coming decade. The next financial crisis (which I also expected by now) will drive big moves and the need for hard money alternatives. I have skin in the game with large bets on gold and bitcoin, but the change will take much longer than I expected.
An end to the war on drugs. I have been for decriminalization of drugs for a long time. In many ways, the US has moved in that direction. But, we have not followed the path of countries that have done it well - deep regulation, aggressive treatment plans, and yes, stigma and consequences around public use and drug induced crime. Marijuana use is now ever present (walk the streets of any major US city - at all hours you will smell it). Have we normalized it too much? I worry we have. While safe in many ways, I am not sure we fully know the impact of regular use of modern marijuana. Recent studies are worrying. And the next generation of heavy drugs are just devastating segments of our society. Over 100,000 people died of overdose in 2021 and 2022, most from the super drug fentanyl. Average age: 39.5 years. And, the drugs are fueling a growing homeless and crime surge. Less police action and more taxes (both good) were the promise, but clearly these developments are not the end of the story.
I am sure that is just the tip of the iceberg - with many more mistakes to come.
What have you gotten wrong or changed your mind about recently?
The Durham report this week slammed the FBI’s Russia-gate investigation. While much of the press said its a nothing-burger, there is much to worry about. One view from a Bernie Sanders democrat: Durham’s Report Should Outrage the Left. Instead of denying, the FBI at least admitted errors. It’s a start. Institutional integrity relies on admitting fault and reforming.
My beloved San Antonio Spurs hit the lottery jackpot this week. Seems like a good time to revisit The Beautiful Game, an inspiring 6 min video highlighting the franchise’s commitment to team basketball:
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Getting it Wrong - Again!
Excellent round up with sound reasoning. Thank you. I hope you don’t mind my re-stacking.